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Wallace garden supply

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Reference no: EM13961340

Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table:

Year

Bags (in thousands)

Year

Bags (in thousands)

1

4

7

7

2

6

8

9

3

4

9

12

4

5

10

14

5

10

11

15

6

8

 

 

a) Develop  two-year, three-year, and four-year moving averages to forecast demand in year 12.

b) Forecast demand with a three-year weighted moving average in which demand in the most recent year is given a weight of 2 and demands in the two years are each given a weight of 1.

c) Forecast demand by using exponential smoothing that the forecast for year 1 is 5,0000 bags to begin the procedure.

d) Which of the methods analyzed here would you use. Explain your answer.

Answers for above:

A) MAPE2-MA =22.57%, MAPE3-MA  =22.92%, MAPE4-MA  =27.07%.

B) MAPE3-WMA  = 21.17%.

C) MAPE2-MA  =25.50%

3-PERIOD SEEMS TO BE THE BEST,   BUT WHY?

Reference no: EM13961340

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Wallace garden supply : Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table:
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