Vincent is preparing for annual budgetary exercise

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Reference no: EM132232145

The Ministry of Finance in St. Vincent is preparing for the annual budgetary exercise and wants to project the collections from Value added tax (VAT) for the next year. Using very efficient collection strategies they have been able to increase their annual revenue by approximately $10 million over the past 10 years. The recent international recession has slowed the growth rate of collections in the past few years. The annual revenue, in millions of dollars, for the previous 10 years is shown below. Year Revenue (mn) 1 8.53 2 10.54 3 12.98 4 14.11 5 16.31 6 17.21 7 18.37 8 18.45 9 18.4 10 18.43 a) Using a weighted moving average with three periods, determine the revenue collections for period 11. Use 3, 2, and 1 for the weights of the most recent, second most recent, and third most recent periods, respectively. Compute the MAD, MSE and MPE for this method. (eight marks) b) Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.30 to forecast the revenue. Assume that last period’s forecast for year 1 is equal to actual to begin the procedure. Is this an improvement over the weighted average- use MAD only ( Six marks) c) Use regression analysis to estimate the line of best fit -use the manual method with the formulas shown below. and find the forecast revenue for period 11. Can you please show all workings and answer all the parts of the questions A. B anc. Thank you kindly. needed for the 28th October 2018.

Reference no: EM132232145

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