Using the expected monetary value criterion

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A plant manager is considering buying additional stamping machines to accommodate increasing demand. The alternatives are to buy 1 machine, 2 machines, or 3 machines. The profits realized under each alternative are a function of whether their bid for a recent defense contract is accepted or not. The payoff table below illustrates the profits realized (in $000's) based on the different scenarios faced by the manager.

Alternative Bid Accepted Bid Rejected

Buy 1 machine $10 $5

Buy 2 machines $30 $4

Buy 3 machines $40 $2

Refer to the information above. Assume that based on historical bids with the defense contractor, the plant manager believes that there is a 65% chance that the bid will be accepted and a 35% chance that the bid will be rejected.

Which alternative should be chosen using the expected monetary value (EMV) criterion?

Reference no: EM132211374

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