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Unbiased predictor of future spot exchange rate

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Reference no: EM131086447

MINI CASE: AIRBUS' DOLLAR EXPOSURE

Airbus sold an aircraft, A400, to Delta Airlines, a U.S. company, and billed $30 million payable in six months. Airbus is concerned with the euro proceeds from international sales and would like to control exchange risk. The current spot exchange rate is $1.05/€ and six-month forward exchange rate is $1.10/€ at the moment. Airbus can buy a six-month put option on U.S. dollars with a strike price of €0.95/$ for a premium of €0.02 per U.S. dollar. Currently, six-month interest rate is 2.5% in the euro zone and 3.0% in the U.S.

1. Compute the guaranteed euro proceeds from the American sale if Airbus decides to hedge using a forward contract.

2. If Airbus decides to hedge using money market instruments, what action does Airbus need to take? What would be the guaranteed euro proceeds from the American sale in this case?

3. If Airbus decides to hedge using put options on U.S. dollars, what would be the 'expected' euro proceeds from the American sale? Assume that Airbus regards the current forward exchange rate as an unbiased predictor of the future spot exchange rate.

4. At what future spot exchange rate do you think Airbus will be indifferent between the option and money market hedge?

Reference no: EM131086447

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