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The probability of moving between states is provided in Table 1 (to start we will assume death rate is fixed over time)
Transition
Annual probability
FEV1 ≥70% to FEV1 ≥70%
84%
FEV1 ≥70% to FEV1 40-69%
11%
FEV1 ≥70% to FEV1 <40%
0%
FEV1 40-69% to FEV1 ≥70%
12%
FEV1 40-69% to FEV1 40-69%
74%
FEV1 40-69% to FEV1 <40%
9%
FEV1 <40% to FEV1 ≥70%
3%
FEV1 <40% to FEV1 40-69%
9.6%
FEV1 <40% to FEV1 <40%
82%
Probability transplant/year (FEV1
0.4%
Death
5%
Complete the transition matrix for patients in the model:
From/to
FEV1 ≥70%
FEV1 40-69%
FEV1 <40%
Post-transplant
-
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