Time series analysis and forecasting assignment

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Reference no: EM132471496

Time Series Analysis and Forecasting -

Question 1. For the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are 80, 82, 84, 83, 83, 84, 85, 84, 82, 83, 84, and 83.

a. Choose the correct time series plot.
(i) (ii)
(iii) (iv)

What type of pattern exists in the data?

b. Compare a three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast for α = 0.2. Which provides the better forecasts using MSE as the measure of model accuracy? Do not round your interim computations and round your final answers to three decimal places.

What is the forecast for next month? If required, round your answer to two decimal places.

Question 2.

Consider the following time series.

a. Choose the correct time series plot.

b.What type of pattern exists in the data?

c. Use simple linear regression analysis to find the parameters for the line that minimizes MSE for this time series. Do not round your interim computations and round your final answers to three decimal places. For subtractive or negative numbers use a minus sign. (Example: -300)

y-intercept, b₀ =

Slope, b₁ =

MSE =

d. What is the forecast for t = 8? If required, round your answer to three decimal places.

Question 3.

Consider the following time series data.

a. Choose the correct time series plot.

b. What type of pattern exists in the data?

c. Use a multiple regression model with dummy variables as follows to develop an equation to account for seasonal effects in the data. Qtr1 = 1 if Quarter 1, 0 otherwise; Qtr2 = 1 if Quarter 2, 0 otherwise; Qtr3 = 1 if Quarter 3, 0 otherwise. If required, round your answers to three decimal places. For subtractive or negative numbers use a minus sign even if there is a + sign before the blank.

d. Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.

Question 4.

The medical community unanimously agrees on the health benefits of regular exercise, but are adults listening? During each of the past 15 years, a polling organization has surveyed americans about their exercise habits. In the most recent of these polls, slightly over half of all American adults reported that they exercise for 30 or more minutes at least three times per week. The following data show the percentages of adults who reported that they exercise for 30 or more minutes at least three times per week during each of the 15 years of this study.

Year	Percentage of Adults Who Exercise 30 or more minutes at least three times per week
1	41.7
2	44.4
3	47.5
4	45.6
5	46.5
6	47.9
7	47.9
8	51.2
9	49.5
10	49.1
11	49.6
12	52.6
13	50.4
14	54.3
15	52.6

a. Choose the correct time series plot.

b. Does a linear trend appear to be present?

c. use simple linear regression to find the parameters for the line that minimizes MSE for this time series. Do not round your interim computations and round your final answers to four decimal places. For subtractive or negative numbers use a minus sign.

d. Use the trend equation from part (b) to forecast the percentage of adults next year (year 16 of the study) who will report that they exercise for 30 or more minutes at least three times per week. Do not round your interim computations and round your final answers to four decimal places. For subtractive or negative numbers use a minus sign.

e. Use the trend equation from part (b) to forecast the percentage of adults three years from now (year 18 of the study) who will report that they exercise for 30 or more minutes at least three times per week. Do not round your interim computations and round your final answers to four decimal places. For subtractive or negative numbers use a minus sign.

Attachment:- Time Series Analysis and Forecasting.rar

Reference no: EM132471496

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