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HW - THREE BAYES RULE PROBLEMS
1. EYEWITNESS TESTIMONY. A man was struck by a speeding taxi as he crossed the street. Aneyewitness testified the taxi (which did not stop) was blue. The man sued the Blue Cabcompany for his medical expenses. The city has only two cab companies, Blue Cab and GreenCab. Green Cab has 85% of all taxis in the city.At the trial, the man's lawyer showed that the eyewitness is 80% reliable in identifying thecolor of taxis. That is, the eyewitness was able to identify the color of a taxi correctly 80% ofthe time, under conditions similar to those the night of the accident. The lawyer concludesthat it is extremely likely that the man was hit by a Blue Cab taxi.Given the eyewitness's testimony, what is the probability the man was hit by a Blue Cab taxi?
2.MEDICAL TESTS. Medical tests are used to indicate whether a person has a particulardisease.The sensitivity of a test is the probability that a person having the disease will test positive(indicating the person has the disease, i.e., it's the probability the test will pick up the factthat a person has the disease).The specificity of a test is the probability that a person not having the disease will testnegative.A test for a certain disease has been in use for many years. Based on the "track record" ofthis test, its sensitivity is 0.934 and its specificity is 0.968. Finally, in the population, 1 in 500people has the disease.a. What is the probability that a person who tests positive actually has the disease?b. What value would the specificity of the test have to have in order for the probability toexceed 0.5 that a person who tests positive actually has the disease?
Many automotive dealerships, such as BMW, sell low mileage late model used cars, with warranties on defects and repairs that offer more coverage for longer periods of time than the warranties on their brand new cars. Describe the rationale for this p..
Edward the entrepreneur takes 2 hours to cut a lawn, and he cuts 1,000 lawns per year. He uses solar-powered equipment (truck and mover) that will last forever
Presume that the required reserve ratio is 8.0%. What is the simple money (deposit) multiplier? Round to two decimal places.
An individual is considering the purchase of a used car. Total amount of the car is $10,400 and requires $2,400 as a down payment and the balance need to be paid in 60 equal monthly payments with an effective interest rate of 12% per year compounded ..
assume that apple industry wants to merge with another software company such as microsft and has to make some long
The average total cost of operating a clinic is $800 per patient if the volume is one hundred patients, and $790 each patient if the volume is 110 patients. Find the total cost at each of these two volumes?
In the absence of a price floor, how much consumer surplus is created, how much producer surplus and what is the total surplus - How much producer surplus is created now?
1. what determines whether a financial asset is included in the m1 money supply? why are interest-earning checkable
What is the decision to be made, what is the chance event and what is the consequence for this problem? How many outcomes are there for the chance event?
If De Beers charges the monopoly price, how large is the individual consumer surplus that each buyer experiences? Calculate total consumer surplus by summing the individual consumer surpluses. How large is producer surplus?
When the economy is operating at full employment, why is an increase in aggregate demand not helpful to the economy? When the economy is hit with a supply shock, such as oil prices rising from $25 a barrel to $75 a barrel, why is this double disrupti..
Agree or disagree and describe. The AD schedule slopes downward because real income rises as the price level declines and everybody buys more as the real income rises.
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