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Chez Paul is contemplating either opening another restaurant or expanding its existing location. The payoff table for these two decisions is:
s1
s2
s3
New Restaurant
-$80K
$20K
$160K
Expand
-$40K
$100K
Paul has calculated the indifference probability for lottery having a payoff of $160K with probability p and -$80K with probability (1-p) as follows:
Amount
Indifference Probability (p)
.4
.7
.9
Evaluate the result in part c with the decision using the expected value approach.
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