Table 1 is provided as a reference for input values for

Reference no: EM13364093

Table 1 is provided as a reference for input values for your model.

Table 1. Input Variable for Scenario Analysis
Variable Name	Description	Base	Best	Worst
Pr_PROB	Per-act HIV infection without PEP	0.02	0.03	0.006
Pr_PREV	Partner is HIV-infected	0.18	1	0.06
Pr_ADHERE1	Patients' adherence to full course of therapy in absence of side effects	0.79	0.84	0.68
Pr_ADHERE2	Patients' adherence to full course of therapy when side effects occur	0.59	0.68	0.5
Pr_PEPE	Effectiveness of full course of PEP	0.79	0.94	0.43
Pr_SIDE	Probability of PEP side effects	0.5	0.2	0.8
r	Discount rate	3%	0	5%
C_PEP	Cost of PEP per person	$679	$439	$1,048
Q_SIDE	QALYs lost due to side effect	0.005	0	0.02
Note:C_HIVMC, Q_HIV and Q_NOHIV are functions of discount rate and annual values; they will vary in accordance with the discount rate r. C_HIVMC = NPV(r;0; 0; 3267; 9303; 9303; 9303; 16167; 16167; 16167; 17835; 17835; 17835; 17835; 25729; 49010; 49010)172.2/156.9 Q_HIV* = NPV(r;0.940; 0.940; 0.910; 0.870; 0.870; 0.870; 0.820; 0.820; 0.820; 0.760; 0.760; 0.760; 0.760; 0.650; 0.620; 0.620) Q_NOHIV = PV(0.940; 0; r; 39)

Note: You do not need to make best and worst case variables for C_HIVMC, Q_NOHIV and Q_HIV. These values are functions of the discount rate. They will change as a function of the best and worst case discount rates.

Remember to save different versions of your tree if you want to make changes to your base tree to save time.

Answer the following questions. Please type your answers.

1. Consider variables: Pr_Prob and Pr SIDE. Explain why a relatively high value for the former and a relatively low value for the latter are the input values for the BEST case.

2. Please completetable 2 below.

3. Please describe generally what a best and worst case scenario analysis is and why we conduct them.

4. Explain the results presented in your table to a policy-maker.

Table 2: Base, Best and Worst Case Results

Scenario	Cost	Incremental Cost	Effects	Incremental Effect	ICER
Base Case
PEP
No-PEP

Worst
PEP
No-PEP

Best
PEP
No-PEP

Reference no: EM13364093

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