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System Dynamics Modelling for PM Assignment -

LEARNING OUTCOMES - Learning outcomes are the key abilities and knowledge that will be assessed in this unit. See assessment summary table below for details of which outcomes are assessed where. Outcomes are listed according to the course goals that they support.

Project Methods (Level 4)

1. Ability to recognise complex scenarios.

2. Understand the differences in Project Management style, situations and context.

3. Build the bridge between System Theory and Project Management.

Project Leadership (Level 4)

4. Analyse the impact of different scenarios and how they be impacted by the stakeholders decisions.

5. Ability to map the the skills needed in a complex project and identify possible gaps.

Professional Practice (Level 4)

6. Gather and reflect on lessons learnt at the end of the group and individual assignment.

Assignment - Modelling "Vasa" construction; System Dynamics Model of a ship construction project

Three dynamic processes (over 120 months):

1. construction of decks (0 decks to begin with)

2. production of cannons (0 cannons to begin with)

3. the King is writing letters (1 letter to begin with)

Specifications:

1. specified number of cannons (initially, 150)

2. specified density (initially, 50; measured in cannons per deck)

Construction of decks -

• define the deck production gap as the difference between the target number of decks and all currently produced decks (hint: use the specifications to determine the target number of decks)
• define the time to adjust decks' production in order to reduce the gap as 10 months (for example)
• the deck production rate is then defined as a ratio of the deck production gap and the time to adjust decks' production
• the decks get broken at some break rate (1 deck is broken normally in 10 months), but the breaks happen more often when there are more decks

Production of cannons

• define the cannon production gap as the difference between the specified number of cannons and all currently produced cannons
• define the time to adjust cannons' production in order to reduce the gap as 20 months (for example)
• the cannon production rate is then defined as a ratio of the cannon production gap and the time to adjust cannons' production
• the managers are also motivated to produce 2 new cannons for every letter from the king
• cannons are then produced every month at an aggregate rate which has two parts: the cannon production rate and the motivated cannon rate (which depends on the managers' motivation)

The King writes letters...

• The King gets stressed when the number of actually produced cannons is still below the specified number of cannons
• when stressed, the King begins to write more letters: and the more letters he has already written, the more stressed he becomes
• define the King's stress rate (hint: stress rate is measured in 1/month); for example, the stress rate of 0.25 means that for every 4 previously written letters the King would write one more letter in a month;
• model the random stress rate between 0.1 and 0.5 (using uniform random distribution)
• when not stressed, the King writes one letter per month.

The specifications change...

• month 12th: the specified density of cannons per deck is increased by 25, but the increase lasts only one year
• month 30th: the specified density of cannons per deck is reduced by 25, but the reduction lasts only one year
• month 48th: the specified number of cannons is increased by 150
• month 78th: the specified number of cannons is again increased by 150

Ship quality

• please suggest how to define, and model, the overall quality of the ship using various variables (hint: define current density as the ratio of produced cannons over constructed decks; if there are no decks, define density as 0)
• analyse which rates and variables affect the overall quality
• analyse under what conditions is there a convergence in production
• this assignment is not meant to follow the true historical account, but rather presents an exercise: you do not need to reproduce the full story discussed during workshop and but at the same time some realism is expected, so do not construct a ship with 100 decks or 1 cannon...
• Keep the report brief, but include diagrams and graphs
• Introduce the problem you are trying to solve (i.e. define the problem)
• Develop the model, describe the assumptions, and justify them
• Present and discuss the results
• Conclusions: What are the main factors in this construction project and resultant dynamics? What would you change to improve the ship quality?

Attachment:- System Dynamics Modelling Assignment Files.rar