Subjective probability distribution

Reference no: EM13995720

Choose a course that you are currently taking in which the final exam is worth 100 points. Treating your score on the exam as if it were a continuous uncertain quantity, assess the subjective probability distribution for your score. After you have finished, check your as sessed distribution for consistency by:

a. Choosing any two intervals you have judged to have equal probability content, and

b. Determining whether you would be willing to place small even-odds bets that your score would fall in one of the two intervals. (The bet would be called off if the score fell elsewhere.)

c. After assessing the continuous distribution, construct a three-point approximation to this distribution with the extended Pearson-Tukey method. Use the approximation to estimate your expected exam score.

d. Now construct a five-point approximation with bracket medians. Use this approxima- tion to estimate your expected exam score. How does your answer compare with the estimate from part c?

Reference no: EM13995720

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