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You own a well-diversified portfolio. You are considering a small investment in a local start-up founded by a family member.
Your best guess is that the start-up has a 30% chance of succeeding-in which case the return is estimated to be 400%--and a 70% chance of failing, in which case you will lose your entire investment (i.e., the return will be -100%.)
The current risk-free rate is 2% per year, and the expected market risk premium is 6% per year.
Problem 1: Calculate the standard deviation of return on this investment.
Problem 2: Is this a valuable investment opportunity? Explain your answer and use calculations, where appropriate, to make your point.
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