Reference no: EM133111559
Simulation and Modeling
1. Perform manual (by hand) simulation.
2. Perform simple Monte-Carlo simulation in a spreadsheet environment.
• Some baby examples
• Fun with Calculus
• Simulation of a Queuing System
• Simulating the News Dealer's Problem
• What is a probability of tossing coin & getting Tails?
• A fair coin has 50-50 chance of Heads or Tails.
• Do you think that your coin is fair?
• What is the true probability of getting Tails for your coin?
• How would you go about finding this out?
• To find the actual probability of getting Tails for your coin, we can
• Toss coin repeatedly many times.
• Record the number of Tails, T and the number of experiments (tosses) performed, N.
Task: each individually complete 10 tosses, re-estimating P after each toss.
• Whose coin is fair?
• How confident are you in your estimate of P?
• Is 10 tosses enough to tell?
• How many tosses is enough?
• Can you do 1,000,000 tosses by hand?
• We just used simulation by hand to find P.
Simulation By Hand: The Buffon Needle Problem
1. What is the average inter-arrival time?
2. What is the arrival rate?
3. What is the average doctor's service time?
4. What is the doctor service rate?
5. What is the average time a patient spends in the doctor's office from the arrival till leaving?
6. How many number of patients in the doctor's office at any given time?
Attachment:- Hand and Spreadsheet Simulation.rar
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