Simple linear regression model using excel

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Reference no: EM1313493

(a) Plot the data on U.S. general aviation shipments.

(b) Describe the pattern and discuss possible causes.

(c) Would a fitted trend be helpful? Explain.

(d) Make a similar graph for 1992-2003 only. Would a fitted trend be helpful in making a prediction for 2004?

(e) Fit a trend model of your choice to the 1992-2003 data.

(f) Make a forecast for 2004, using either the fitted trend model or a judgment forecast. Why is it best to ignore earlier years in this data set?

U.S Manufactured general aviation shipments( 1966 - 2003)

Year

planes

year

planes

year

planes

year

planes

1966

15,587

1976

15,451

1986

1,495

1996

1,053

1967

13,484

1977

16,904

1987

1,085

1997

1,482

1968

13,556

1978

17,811

1988

1,143

1998

2,115

1969

12,407

1979

17,048

1989

1,535

1999

2,421

1970

7,277

1980

11,877

1990

1,134

2000

2,714

1971

7,346

1981

9,457

1991

1,021

2001

2,538

1972

9,774

1982

4,266

1992

856

2002

2,169

1973

13,646

1983

2,691

1993

870

2003

2,090

1974

14,166

1984

2,431

1994

881



Reference no: EM1313493

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