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Returns
Scenario Probability Auto Gold Portfolio (75% auto, 25% gold)
Recession 1/3 -8 +20 .75(-8) + .25 (20) = -1.0%Normal 1/3 +5 +3 .75(5) + .25 (3) = +4.5%
Boom 1/3 +18 -20 .75(18) + .25 (-20) = +8.5%Expected Return
Auto (-8+5+18)/3 = 5%Gold (+20+3-20)/3 = 1%
Portfolio (-1+4.5+8.5)/3 = 4%Variance
Auto (169+0+169)/3 = 112.7 (std. 10.6%)Gold (361+4+441)/3 = 268.7 (std. 16.4%)
Portfolio (25+.25 +20.25)/3 = 15.2 (std 3.9%)Homework:
1) Show expected return & variance of a 90% auto, 10% gold portfolio
2) Show expected return & variance of a 25% auto 75% gold portfolio
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