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Hart Lumber is considering the purchase of a paper company. Purchasing the company would require an initial investment of $300 million. Hart estimates that the paper company would provide net cash flows of $40 million at the end of each of the next 20 years. The cost of capital for the paper company is 13 percent.
a. Should Hart purchase the paper company?
b. While Hart's best guess is that cash flows will be $40 million a year, it recognizes that there is a 50 percent chance the cash flows will be $50 million a year, and a 50 percent chance that the cash flows will be $30 million a year. One year from now, it will find out whether the cash flows will be $30 million or $50 million. In addition, Hart also recognizes that if it wanted, it could sell the company at Year 3 for $280 million. Given this additional information, does using decision tree analysis indicate that it makes sense to purchase the paper company? Again, assume that all cash flows are discounted at 13 percent.
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