Reference no: EM132519663
RSK80007 Quantitative Risk Modelling - Swinburne University of Technology
Purpose: To provide a structured opportunity to consider and apply the concepts presented in the notes.
Your task is to develop quantified Risk models of two Risks of interest to you. This is an academic exercise and its purpose is to make you familiar with the process of quantified Risk modelling and to show me you understand the theory and the practice.
a) Write up each Risk as a case study that explains the Risk in detail and describes the proposed control measures.
b) Estimate/judge the values that could realistically be given to the various parameters relevant to modelling Risk and explain your reasoning to me. Don't spend inordinate amounts of time trying to justify any of the values that have to be estimated/judged in order to complete the task (eg. does a death cost $3M or is it $3.2M? Is the Exposure 20 times a year or 18?). However, ensure that you do have justification for the values you use as I am not interested in you simply using a number with no justification.
c) Use your spreadsheet to estimate the position of the Risk line, using any necessary "reality checks". In other words, justify or even make a clear statement of the inadequacies of what you have done and the need for further investigation. Estimate the Risk value.
d) Propose a possible control measure change/improvement and estimate the associated implications for productivity, recurrent costs and/or capital requirements. I am well aware these may based on judgement unless you have a close knowledge of a particular case.
e) Provide me with an explanation of the anticipated effect of this proposed control measure on each of the parameters that determine Risk and use this to justify a reduction in the Risk value estimated before this improved control measure is applied.
f) Use this to estimate the effect of the improved control measure on one or both (as appropriate) of recurrent costs and payback period.
Attachment:- Quantified Risk Modelling.rar
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