Reference no: EM133373679

Democratic government is intended to be responsive to the people, and public opinion can be a source of power for political actors. When approval ratings are high, presidents are better able to advance their policy agendas. Unpopularity, on the other hand, can make it difficult to govern. Presidents are often said to have a honeymoon period at the start of their presidency, which wanes over time.

We have seen that public opinion can be difficult to decipher, citing the mixed election results of the 2018 midterms and the 2020 election. Elections do not tell us why the public likes a policy or a candidate, but public opinion polls do reveal this information. Before polling, presidents tried to guess public attitudes through unreliable means such as talking to small sets of local individuals or reading newspaper clippings. Inferences from polls in the 1800s were suspect because it was not always clear who was being surveyed. Scientific polling has increased the accuracy of gauging public opinion, and this is done through random and representative sampling. Types of polls include telephone, Internet, tracking, and exit polls. All polls have some degree of uncertainty, and the confidence interval provides a range that captures sampling error. Pollsters must consider the fact individuals will not have strong viewpoints, or perhaps any viewpoints, on certain sets of topics.

Explain why random samples and representative samples are essential to conducting polling. What are some of the methods pollsters use to collect information, and which method do you think would be most effective?