Regression analysis to estimate the line of best fit

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Reference no: EM13219244

Data collected on the gasoline sales over the past 12 weeks are shown in the following table.

Week	Sales (1000s of gallons)
1	17
2	21
3	19
4	23
5	18
6	16
7	20
8	18
9	22
10	20
11	15
12	22

a) Using a weight of 1/2 for the most recent observation, 1/3 for the second most recent,and 1⁄6 for third most recent, compute a three-week weighted moving average for the time series. Compute the MAD, MSE and MPE for this method.

b) Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.1 to forecast the gasoline sales . Assume that last period's forecast for year 1 is 15,000 gallons to begin the procedure. Which method do you think is best?. Is this an improvement over the weighted average- use all measures above i.e MAD,MSE, MAPE

c) Use regression analysis to estimate the line of best fit -use the manual method with the formulas shown below.

y=a+bx

where:

b= n∑xy-∑x∑y

n∑x² -(∑X)²

a=y-bx

Reference no: EM13219244

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