Reference no: EM133696492
Data-driven Decision Making and Forecasting
Assessment - Fitting and evaluating ARIMA and VAR time series models
Your Tasks
In Class (3 hours): Compare fitting a SARIMA model to fitting an ARMA model to residuals from a Prophet model, for two time series. Discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the two approaches.
Quiz (suggest 15 to 30 minutes, maximum 30 minutes): Make a video of yourself answering multiple choice questions based on Workshop 8 material, which focuses on VAR models, using Zoom.
In class:
At the beginning of the class, your lecturer will provide you with a dataset and a series of questions to answer. You will create a Word document with the answers to questions. At the end of class, submit your Word file via MyKBS.
Part A: Fit SARIMA models to the two time series and provide plots of the time series and predictions. Provide the acfs of the residuals.
Part B: Obtain residuals from Prophet models and fit ARMA models to these residuals.
Part C: Discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the two approaches.
Quiz:
Record yourself doing the video quiz using Zoom screen share.
You will log into Zoom using the instructions, share your screen, and start recording.
You will then enter the "Video quiz" on MyKBS where you will need to:
Part D: Make a video lasting between 15 to 30 minutes of yourself answering the 7 multiple choice questions based on Workshop 8 material, explaining your reasoning as you progress. [7 Marks ].
Once you start the quiz you will have 30 minutes to complete it.
Say how confident you are about your responses, share your thought processes, and relate your answers to concepts learned in class.
You can start the quiz anytime between 10 am Monday to 5 pm Friday, Week 9.
The quiz can only be attempted once.
Part E: Upload your video recording as instructed.
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