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Problem on naive forecast method

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Reference no: EM13302636

Question:

1) Complete Exercise 2.1. In the Excel document below, you may use Sheet 1 ("Moving Averages Template"), which includes an automated Excel table, for your calculations.

Use Sheet 2 to record your answers to a, b, c, and this additional question (2.1d): "In 1-2 sentences, explain which of the three results you have the most confidence in projecting accurately and why that is."

2) Complete Exercise 14.1. In the Excel document below, use Sheet 3 ("Single Channel Template"), which includes an automated Excel table, for your calculations, and use Sheet 4 to record your answers.

The monthly ambulatory visits shown in table EX 2.1 occurred in an outpatient clinic.

TABLE EX 2.1

Months Visits
July 2,160
August 2,186
September 2,246
October 2,251
November 2,243
December 2,162

a. Predict visits for January, using the naïve forecast method.

b. Predict visits for January, using a three-period moving average.

c. Predict visits for January, using a four-period moving average.

1 People call a suburban hospital's health hotline at the rate of eighteen per hour on Monday mornings; this can be described by Poisson distribution.

Providing general information or channeling to other resources take an average of three minutes per call and varies exponentially.

There is one nurse agent on duty on Mondays. Determine each of the following:

A. System Utilization

B. Average Number in Line

C. Average Time in Line

D. Average Time in the System

Attachment:- template.xlsm

Reference no: EM13302636

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