Probability of obtaining the best prize

Reference no: EM131005692

Suppose that we are to be presented with n distinct prizes in sequence. After being presented with a prize we must immediately decide whether to accept it or reject it and consider the next prize. The only information we are given when deciding whether to accept a prize is the relative rank of that prize compared to ones already seen. That is, for instance, when the ?fth prize is presented we learn how it compares with the ?rst four prizes already seen. Suppose that once a prize is rejected it is lost, and that our objective is to maximize the probability of obtaining the best prize. Assuming that all n! orderings of the prizes are equally likely, how well can we do?

Reference no: EM131005692

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