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Probability of completing the project on time

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Reference no: EM13320829

547/15d

If Doug wants a 0.99 probability of completing the project on time, how far ahead of the scheduled meeting date should he begin working on the project?

Activity Expected Time Variance

A 2 0.03

B 3 0.44

C 2 0.11

D 2 0.03

E 1 0.03

F 2 0.11

G 4 0.44

H 4 0.11

I 2 0.03

Activities on critical path:  A, B, G, H, I

E(T) = 2+3+4+4+2 = 15

Variance on critical path:

σ2= 0.03 + 0.44 + 0.44 + 0.11 + 0.03 = 1.05

From Probability Distribution Table, we find 0.99 probability occurs at z = +2.33.

Thus

Doug should begin working on the project 17.4 weeks ahead.

Reference no: EM13320829

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