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Probability of a market upturn

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Later, the company discovered that current prior probabilities might be inaccurate, so it hired a famous economic analyst, James, to come up with a different prior probabilities for each market status. Two months later, James came up with different probabilities for current economy. He estimates a 10 percent probability of a market upturn, a 25 percent probability of a stable market, and a 65 percent probability of a market downturn. Based on the new probabilities, which option should a firm choose?

Reference no: EM133189500

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