Reference no: EM132406710

Assume that Jones Co. will need to purchase 100,000 Singapore dollars (SGD) in 180 days. Today's spot rate of the SGD is $.50, and the 180-day forward rate is $.53. A call option on SGD exists, with an exercise price of $.52, a premium of $.02, and a 180-day expiration date. A put option on SGD exists, with an exercise price of $.51, a premium of $.02, and a 180-day expiration date. Jones has developed the following probability distribution for the spot rate in 180 days:

Possible Spot Rate in 180 Days for SGD       Probability

                        $.48                                         10%

                        $.53                                         60%

                        $.55                                         30%

The probability that a forward hedge will result in a higher payment than the options hedge is _______ (include the amount paid for the premium when estimating the U.S. dollars required for the options hedge).