Reference no: EM132436408

Problem: A local arboretum contains a variety of tree species, including elms, maples, and others. Unfortunately, 18% of all trees in the arboretum are infected with mold, some species being more susceptible than others. Among the infected trees, 15% are elms, 80% are maples, and 5% are other species. Among the uninfected trees, 20% are elms, 10% are maples, and 70% are other species. In monitoring the spread of mold, an arboretum employee randomly selects a tree to test.

Required:

Question 1: What's the prior probability that the selected tree has mold? Answer using notation.

Question 2: The tree happens to be a maple. What's the probability that the employee would have selected a maple? Answer using notation.

Question 3: What's the posterior probability that the selected maple tree has mold? Aanswer using notation.

Question 4: Compare the prior and posterior probability of the tree having mold. How did your understanding of whether or not the tree had mold change in light of the fact that it's a maple?