Predict new weekly unemployment insurance claims using

Reference no: EM13470304

The following table shows the last six years average new weekly unemployment insurance claims.

Year	Average weekly new unemployment insurance claims
2004	341,300
2005	333,600
2006	311,300
2007	321,200
2008	415,800
2009	567,600

(a) Forecast the new weekly unemployment insurance claims for all years from 2007 to 2010. Use a three-year weighted moving average with weights of 0.6, 0.3, and 0.1. Use the largest weight with the most recent data.

(b) Forecast the new weekly unemployment insurance claims using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.6 for all years from 2005 to 2010. Use the rate for 2004 as the starting forecast for 2004.

(c) Which of the methods in parts (a) and (b) produces better forecasts for the three years from 2007 to 2009? Answer on the basis of mean square error (MSE).

Reference no: EM13470304

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