Reference no: EM132225846
Forecasting is the final step of the QCQ process. All the theory search and development, data gathering, relationship development and evaluation give planners the tools with which to predict possible outcomes under different conditions. This allows them to forecast likely outcomes for their model under various scenarios, which is a way of prechecking their model.
Based on what they know now, will this model lead to a solution to their business problem?
This week you will learn about the importance of forecasting and create a forecast based on your data.
Learning Objectives
Students will:
Analyze the importance of forecasting
Create a forecast based on their data
Learning Resources
Note: To access this week's required library resources, please click on the link to the Course Readings List, found in the Course Materials section of your Syllabus.
Required Readings
Dickey, J. W., Birdsall, I. A., Larkin, G. R., & Kwang, K. S. (2015). Supernumerary intelligence: A new approach to analytics for management. Charlotte, NC: Information Age Press.
.Chapter 14, "Step 7. Forecasting" (pp. 221-228)
Discussion: Step 7-Forecasting
Now we get to the point of the whole process. Why do managers and business leaders do all this work in identifying variables, gathering data, and creating models? It is to predict outcomes so as to discover the best policies to solve a problem. Having reduced the relationships between variables to equations, you are now in a position to manipulate the values of the variables in order capture expected outcomes under different possible scenarios.
To prepare:
Review your Learning Resources, focusing on forecasting as part of the QCQ process.
Consider the times when forecasting might be used or your experiences using forecasting.
Post an explanation of the importance of forecasting as the last step in the QCQ process. Use your previous public policy and administration issue to make a forecast of what will be happening in the future.
Be sure to support your posts and responses with specific references to the Learning Resources.