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A construction company assesses the uncertainty in the return, i.e., gross margins (G), of a project as follows:
G = P - C
Where P = price and C = cost. The cost is estimated as follows:
C =F1C1 + F2 C2 + F1 F2 C3
Where Ci = cost component i, and Fi = cost-influencing factor i. The price is estimated as follows:
P = M1M2M3Pb
Where Pb = base price, and i M = price-influencing multiplier i. These random variables are further defined in Table 1.
The failure probability (Pf ) can be determined as follows:
Pf = P (G≤0) = P (P≤C)
Table: Random Variables and their Probabilistic Characteristics ($ in millions)
Parameter
Description
Mean
CoefficientofVariation
DistributionType
C1
Materials cost component
$10
0.10
Lognormal
C2
Labor cost component
$8
0.12
C3
Subcontracting cost component
$4
0.05
Normal
F1
Materials cost-influencing factor
1
F2
Labor cost-influencing factor
1.1
0.15
Pb
Base price
$30
N/A
Deterministic
M1
Competition price-influencing multiplier
0.95
M2
Customer-history price-influencing multiplier
0.98
M3
Change-order price-influencing multiplier
1.05
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