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Linear regression parameters for demand pattern

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1. The linear regression parameters for this demand pattern are slope = 760 and intercept = 1480 units. Using a regression forecast, what is your forecast for 2017?

Year               Demand

2011                 2,200

2012                 3,600

2013                 3,200

2014                 4,000

2015                 5,800

2. Consider the demand for trading cards listed below.

Year               Demand

2011                  50,000

2012                  40,000

2013                  54,000

2014                  62,000

2015                  86,000

a. Develop 2 year moving average forecasts for 2013, 2014, and 2015.

b. Develop exponential smoothing forecasts for 2012 through 2016 with a smoothing constant of .2. To initialize the process, you may assume that the forecast for 2011 was 50,000.

c. Calculate the MAD and the MAPE for both of your moving average forecasts and exponential smoothing forecasts covering 2013 through 2015 from part a and part b.

d. Based on part c, which model should you use for forecasting? Support your decision.

Reference no: EM131711698

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