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Julie must select the appropriate forecasting method

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Q. As a first step in the teams decision making, they want to forecast quarterly demand for each of the two types of containers for the years 2003 to 2005. Based on historical trends, demand is expected to continue to grow until 2005, after which it is expected to plateau. Julie must select the appropriate forecasting method and estimate the likely forecast error. Which method should she choose?

Use the following methods to forecast quarterly demand for the years 2010 to 2012 in EXCEL:

(a) Moving Average (b) Exponential Smoothing method (c) Exponential Smoothing with Trend (d) Time Series Decomposition 

(e) For parts (a), (b) and (c), also compute the: i. forecasting errors (MAD, MSE, MAPE). ii. standard error of forecast (SF), “Bias” and “Tracking Signal”, iii. also assuming normally distributed forecast errors, 90% confidence range for the 2010-2012 forecasts (i.e., using ??90% = 1.28).

(f) Which method should she choose?


Attachment:- PROJECT2-A Case Study-SPC Forecasting-BB.pdf

Reference no: EM13105365

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