Reference no: EM133679512
Can you check my answers: Political Science 202 Introduction to Political Analysis Spring 2024:
1. A researcher is interested in the effect of economic development on how democratic a country is. He hypothesizes that countries with higher economic development are more democratic than countries with lower economic development. He measures economic development using GDP per capita. He measures how democratic a country is using an index from -10 (fully authoritarian) to +10 (fully democratic). He seeks to test whether variation in economic development causes variation in how democratic a country is. Evaluate this researcher's attempt to establish causality regarding the four hurdles discussed in class. Specifically:
1. First hurdle: Is there a credible causal mechanism that connects X to Y? Provide a causal mechanism (=theoretical story) for how higher economic development could lead a country to be more democratic.
Yes, there is a credible causal that economic development affects the democratic a country is. An example of this is the modernization theory, where economic growth causes democratization. It argues that the more modern a country becomes through industrialization, urbanization, and the increase in technology the country to become more democratic as it opens up ups a class system, where workers demand rights and civil liberties which then leads to a democratic society,
2. Second hurdle: Can we rule out the possibility that Y could cause X? Discuss whether or not it is possible/likely that how democratic a country is has a causal effect on its economic development.
There is a possibility that countries being more democratic leads to economic growth. Democratic systems prioritize human capital investment through education, health care, and social welfare programs. This can lead to a more skilled and productive workforce leading to economic growth. Another way is through the protection of property rights. Democracies tend to have strong legal protections on property rights which encourages investment, and entrepreneurship alk, which contributes to economic development.
3. Third hurdle: Is there covariation between X and Y? What would we expect to find in our data if there is covariation between economic development and how democratic a country is? What would we expect to find if there is no covariation?If there is a covariation between economic development and how democratic a country is, we would find that there is a positive correlation between countries with higher GDP are more democratic than countries with lower GDP. If we find that there is no covariation we will see that there are countries with high economic development that are less democratic.
4. Fourth hurdle: Have we controlled for all confounding variables (Z) that might make the association between X and Y spurious? Discuss one potential confounding variable and discuss how variation in that variable could cause variation in both economic development and how democratic a country is.
One potential confounding variable is the natural resources of one's country in relation to economic development. A country can be resource rich which contributes to their economic development but they do not carry the values of democracy. An example of this is Qatar who is has one of the highest GDP per capita due to the natural resources in oil and natural gas reserves. However, this has not led it to become more democratic as it is a constitutional monarchy that lacks democratic values.