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As a result of Expo 2020, airport terminals in the UAE are expecting increased waiting times and longer queues at security gateways. Historically, when major events were held, he waiting times have been sometimes hours and waiting lines have extended to hundreds of meters in length. In order to reduce waiting times and decrease queue lengths during Expo 2020, airports began analyzing their security processes and started to search for operations management solutions. Experts recognized that one of the main components of any plan to improve the operation at airport terminals is forecasting the number of passengers arriving at checkpoints so that the required number of checkpoints and employees can be determined. At the Dubai airport, operation analysts would like to forecast the number of passengers at the arrival terminal for next November. The objective is to determine how many checkpoints they should operate during the month to ensure that waiting times and queue lengths are within limits. Historical data shows that the demand for airline travel has been following an upward trend during the last 3 years. There are two terminals at the considered airport, West and East, each designated for different carriers. The data below displays the number of passengers arriving at the West terminal for 10 days (randomly selected) in two-hour periods from 4:00 am to 10:00 pm for the past 3 years for the month of November. Experts are expecting arrivals will surge 50% during November 2020, compared to historical levels, due to Expo 2020.
1. Develop a forecasting model for the number of passengers arriving at the West terminal for each time interval for November in year 2020.
2. Discuss different forecast models that could be used to solve this case and evaluate the accuracy of the selected model.
3. Other than the information that was provided to you in the case, what information would likely improve the accuracy of your forecasts?
Attachment:- Case Study-Operations Management.rar
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