Reference no: EM132373683

You probably have heard that the federal government predicted that the Social Security fund will disappear in the next 20 years because there are fewer numbers of people contributing to the fund and more people taking money out of the fund. The government can determine this by using forecasting. Forecasting allows agencies to predict future revenue collection based on present administrative approaches, structural conditions, demographics, and economic factors. Forecasting is an essential part of financial management in any public agency. When the environmental factors change, public agencies have to engage in careful financial management. This means that public agencies such as criminal justice agencies may resort to lesser known budget or cutback strategies that reduce programs and services. Applying for grant money is one way to fill the funding gap created by cutbacks.

This week you consider environmental effects on public budgets by using forecasting models and financial management strategies. You also propose a new program using grant funding for a criminal justice agency experiencing cutbacks in revenues.

required readings
Menifield, C. E. (2017). The basics of public budgeting and financial management: A handbook for academics and practitioners (3rd ed.) Lanham, MD: Hamilton Books.

Chapter 6, "Budgeting Techniques and Analytical Models"
Chapter 7, "Financial Management"

It is not enough to simply create a budget. Agencies must attempt to predict the outcomes of their budgets over time to be effective. Private agencies use strategic planning to predict the outcomes of their budgets. Strategic planning is used to determine goals and measurable objectives of an agency. Strategic planning looks at changing environmental factors in relation to the future revenues and expenditures available to an agency. Similarly, public agencies, like criminal justice agencies, use a process called forecasting to predict how efficient and effective their budgets will be over time. Forecasting considers the present administrative style, structural conditions, demographics, and economic environment when analyzing public budgets. There are a number of forecasting models that may be used when estimating future revenue and expenses. A local or state government is likely to choose a forecasting model based upon factors such as the size of the budget and the resources available to conduct a forecasting analysis. Additionally, understanding the revenues and having honesty in reporting are key factors that contribute to sound forecasting.

To prepare for this Discussion:

Review Chapter 6 in your course text, The Basics of Public Budgeting and Financial Management, and take note of the various forecasting models outlined.

Review Chapter 7 in your course text, The Basics of Public Budgeting and Financial Management, and think about how financial management affects budgets

Select a criminal justice agency or program with which you are familiar.

Review the "Forecasting Models" document located in the Learning Resources and select a forecasting model to use for this Discussion.

Consider how the forecasting model you selected could be used with the budget from the criminal justice agency or program you selected.

Think about you might justify the forecasting model you selected and consider why it is the best choice for that agency or program.

Consider how the forecasting model might assist in financial management of the agency or program.

Post a brief description
of the criminal justice agency or program and the forecasting model you selected. Then explain how the model might be used with a budget from the agency or program. Finally, justify why the model you selected is the best choice for that agency or program and how it assists in financial management.

at least 250 words. at least 2 quotes. at least 2 references

APA format. times new roman font size 12

Please don''t use run on sentences. I would break down in some sentences if I see the word And.