How is this mistake an example of representativeness

Assignment Help Business Economics

Reference no: EM131003406

Suppose that, in the course of a regular check-up, a doctor discovers that the patient has a potentially cancerous lesion. Most lesions are benign (non-cancerous), say 99%. The doctor orders an x-ray just in case. In laboratory tests on malignant (cancerous) lesions, the x-ray returns positive ( cancer-affirming) results 79.2% of the time and negative results 20.8% of the time. In laboratory test s on benign lesions, the x-ray returns positive results only 9.6% of the time and negative results 90.4% of the time. a. The patient’s x-ray comes back positive. What is the probability that the patient has cancer? b. Suppose that the doctor calculates the probability that the patient has cancer without regard to the base rate of cancer in the population – that is, the doctor uses Bayes’ Law but assumes that cancerous and non-cancerous lesions are equally likely. What mistaken conclusion will the doctor draw from the test? How is this mistake an example of representativeness? Explain why it is important in these situations to have hospital procedures that require additional tests to be performed before a patient undergoes treatment.

Reference no: EM131003406

Questions Cloud

Why has india been able to build a thriving economy : Why has India been able to build a thriving economy? What are the country's advantages in the market? What are some disadvantages?

Substitution effect of a higher real interest rate : The substitution effect of a higher real interest rate on current consumption refers to a/an {INCREASE, DECREASE} in current consumption that takes place as a result of current consumption becoming more expensive than future consumption.

Harley-davidson inc : Read the case, "Harley-Davidson Inc. in May 2015" on page 502-514. Use the case analysis format provided below to identify and address the problems and provide several suggested solutions that the Harley-Davidson Inc. executive team can review for p..

Define what is meant by due process : Define what is meant by "due process" in the context of disciplinary actions involving police or corrections employees. Describe a public employee's "property interest" and "liberty interest" in his or her position. Identify the legal consequences..

How is this mistake an example of representativeness : Suppose that, in the course of a regular check-up, a doctor discovers that the patient has a potentially cancerous lesion. Most lesions are benign (non-cancerous), say 99%. The doctor orders an x-ray just in case. How is this mistake an example of re..

What is the magnetic field of a loop of a loop of wire : What is the magnetic field (size and direction) of a loop of wire, radius 7cm, current 15 ampere, on the axis of the loop, 10cm from the plane of the loop?

What is course hero''s business plan : What is COurse Hero's business plan look like over the next 2 years?

Difference in the value of money in the two economies : Consider two economies, A and B. Both economies have the same population, supply of fiat money, and endowments. In each economy, the number of young people born in each period is constant at N, and the supply of fiat money is constant at M. Will ther..

What is the induced emf in the coil at times : A magnetic field with the time dependence shown in the figure is at right angles to a 155-turn circular coil with a diameter of 3.97 cm. What is the induced emf in the coil at times?

User Account

All Pages