How could our government have been so stupid

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Reference no: EM133709234

Strategy Brief

"Can you save Putin - pt. 2"

"How could our government have been so stupid?"

~~ Anonymous Russian

Russia made a mistake. Early in the conflict, the Russian economy was resilient, selling oil at inflated prices to fund their adventure into Ukraine. The invasion itself spiked prices, and Russia ably used their resources to resist Western attempts at sanctions. War was good for business.

But the situation dramatically changed a few months into the invasion. Increased economic pressure from the US, the EU, and their global partners threatened Russia with economic collapse and isolation. The early resilience surprised many - but with fewer buyers of its petroleum, Russia faced the possibility of having too much oil (on the order of millions of barrels per day). Some estimates suggest Russia experienced a 6-7% decrease in their GDP.

What should Putin do? How can Russia fund their war? And how can Russia use its military and economic strength to hold onto their gains in the Ukraine? If you were a Kremlin advisor in Spring of 2022, what would you have suggested?

In response include economic statecraft concepts such as sticks and carrots, inducements, foreign aid, and compellence as a military strategy.

Reference no: EM133709234

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