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You are based in Paris in January 2015 and have a borrowing limit of €1,000,000 to invest for 5 years. The currencies available to you are GBP, BRL, INR and AUD. Your instrument of choice is 5-year government bonds of the respective country maturing in January 2020. You decide to put on a carry trade.
a. Check the historical performance of the possible trades, which trade would you choose? (Hint: check performance every year from 2000 to 2015 ignore older data i.e. put on a trade every year for 5 years. You end up with 10 trades per currency. Which has the highest chance of profit? Which has the highest profit?)
b. Which of the 4 trades yielded the most returns (in €)
c. What portion of the return was from FX and what portion from interest rates?
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