Generate linear trend with seasonality model

Assignment Help Business Management

Reference no: EM133076811

Juan was asked by his boss to develop a forecast model for the WTI Spot crude oil price. Juan was eager to show off his regression skills and was confident he could build a model that would accurately predict the WTI spot price. After receiving a file of the Cushing OK WTI Spot Price, he got to work. Juan started by first plotting the time series data in Excel and determining if there were any trends or seasonality. He decided to start by building several models.

QUESTIONS: 1. Plot time series data. 2. Generate linear trend model and forecast WTI for the next period. 3. Generate linear trend with seasonality model and forecast WTI for the next period. 4. Comment on the quality of these models and calculate MAD. 5. Show the linear trend and trend with seasonality model equations

As Juan was reviewing the modeling results, his colleague, Mary, commented that he might want to try other forecasting methods that are simpler and may provide better forecasts. Mary suggested to try Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing models to try and generate a more accurate forecast.

QUESTIONS: 1. Generate Moving Averages of 2, 3, 5, and 10 weeks and forecast WTI for the next period. 2. Calculate the MAD for each Moving Average model and comment on which is the best model among these. 3. Generate Exponential Smoothing models with alpha of 0.2, 0.4, 0.6 and 0.8. Forecast WTI for the next period. 4. Calculate the MAD for each Exponential Smoothing model and comment on which is the best model among these. 5. Plot the Moving Average models with the actual WTI on one chart AND on a separate chart plot the Exponential Smoothing models with actual WTI.

Reference no: EM133076811

Questions Cloud

Differences between your culture and another culture : Write about similarities and differences between your culture and another culture you are familiar with from your personal experiences.

Explain possible result of successful development : 1. In what way is better protection of the environment a possible result of successful development?

Explain the details of the stadium funding proposal : Find newspaper article of a recent stadium proposal and critically appraise the tangible and intangible benefit claims in the announcement.

Compute the direct labor efficiency variance : Twenty thousand pounds of material were purchased at a cost of P2.35 per pound. Compute the direct labor efficiency variance

Generate linear trend with seasonality model : Generate linear trend model and forecast WTI for the next period. Generate linear trend with seasonality model and forecast WTI for the next period.

Optimal number of preliminary overbookings : Based on this information, what is the optimal number of preliminary overbookings and how large savings could be expected for a given day?

Impact on net exports and output in the short run : Consider a monetary expansion at home that lowers domestic interest rates. Using one of the models studied in class, discuss what impact this would have on (nom

Promote the forthcoming launch of geometry : Design an advertising copy for a magazine to promote the forthcoming launch of Geometry in the Australian market. You can use external images and software such

Prepare a classified balance sheet : These items are taken from the financial statements of Pharoah Company at December 31, 2022. Buildings $95,220. Prepare a classified balance sheet

User Account

All Pages