Reference no: EM131003419

One of the fans at this game believes in the Law of Small Numbers. She has the wrong model of how likely Curry is to make a basket. Here’s how her model works. The fan imagines that there is a deck of 4 cards. When Paul is Hot, 3 of these cards say “hit” on them, and only 1 says “miss.” Every time Curry takes a shot, one of these cards is drawn randomly without replacement from the deck, and the outcome is whatever the card says. Therefore, when Curry is Hot, he always makes 3 out of every 4 shots he takes. (When the deck is used up, the 4 cards are replaced, the deck is shuffled, and the process begins again – but that isn’t important for this problem.) Similarly, when Curry is Normal or Cold, the outcome of every shot is determined by the draw of a card without replacement from a deck of 4 cards. When curry is Normal, the deck has 2 “hit” cards and 2 “miss” cards. When Curry is Cold, the deck has 1 “hit” card and 3 “miss” cards. Explain how her model corresponds to the Law of Small Numbers.