Reference no: EM133091629

Using fire in forest management sounds contradictory. Prescribed fire, however, is an important tool for foresters, and a recent article describes how decision analysis is used to decide when, where, and what toburn. In one example, a number of areas in the TahoeNational Forest in California had been logged and werebeing prepared for replanting. Preparation included prescribed burning, and two possible treatments wereavailable: burning the slash as it lay on the ground, or "yarding of unmerchantable material" (YUM) prior toburning. The latter treatment involves using heavy equipment to pile the slash. YUM reduces the difficultyof controlling the burn but costs an additional $100 peracre. In deciding between the two treatments, two uncertainties were considered critical. The first was how the fire would behave under each scenario. For example, the fire could be fully successful, problems could arise which could be controlled eventually, or thefire could escape, entailing considerable losses. Second, if problems developed, they could result in high, low,or medium costs.

Question 1. What do you think the U.S. Forest Service's objectives should be in this decision? In the article, only one objective was considered, minimizing cost (including costs associated withan escaped fire and the damage it might do). Do you think this is a reasonable criterion for theForest Service to use? Why or why not?

Question 2. Develop an influence diagram and a decision tree using Precision Tree for this situation. What roles do the two diagrams play in helping to understand and communicate the structure of this decision?