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Forecasting with time series analysis

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Reference no: EM134555

Forecasting with Time Series Analysis

Objective: Crusty Pizza Executives have to forecast December sales for the 10 stores given in table.

• Plot the data for each store.Use data in table.
• Develop a sales forecast for each store for December, using:

a) A three month moving average

b) A 2- month weighted moving average, with weights of 0.7 on the most recent month and 0.3 on the older month.

c) Exponential smoothing with an alpha value of 0.25.

Which resulting forecast and forecasting technique is the best technique to use? Why?

Crusty Dough Pizza Company

Monthly Sales Data for ten stores


 Store Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

A1 $22,910.28 $20,827.53 $27,336.13 $22,389.59 $29,418.88 $29,418.88

A2 $1,604.99 $1,547.67 $1,929.81 $1,853.38 $2,139.98 $2,159.09

A3 $23,317.20 $16,142.68 $15,943.38 $20,128.52 $18,135.60 $19,530.65

A4 $12,339.01 $13,585.38 $14,457.83 $13,585.38 $13,086.83 $12,588.29

A5 $12,771.04 $12,771.04 $11,223.03 $15,093.05 $10,707.03 $11,997.04

A6 $19,694.54 $16,145.98 $17,565.40 $15,791.12 $19,517.11 $20,226.83

A7 $19,258.64 $18,391.14 $14,227.11 $20,299.65 $17,003.13 $15,268.11

A8 $18,483.54 $21,344.08 $19,143.66 $20,243.87 $24,864.76 $23,984.59

A9 $23,471.33 $21,430.35 $28,063.55 $22,195.72 $29,339.17 $30,614.78

A10 $15,572.27 $18,041.04 $22,788.68 $22,029.06 $19,750.19 $22,788.68

















Store Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

A1 $26,815.44 $25,774.07 $21,868.90 $24,732.69 $30,980.95 ?

A2 $2,216.41 $1,968.02 $1,585.88 $1,776.95 $2,235.52 ?

A3 $17,537.72 $21,922.15 $17,737.01 $23,117.91 $20,726.40 ?

A4 $10,469.47 $9,970.92 $11,092.65 $13,336.11 $14,083.92 ?

A5 $15,351.05 $12,900.04 $10,320.03 $11,610.04 $14,190.04 ?

A6 $18,629.97 $14,549.12 $21,291.40 $16,855.69 $16,855.69 ?

A7 $15,268.11 $15,441.62 $13,880.10 $15,441.62 $18,391.14 ?

A8 $23,324.46 $20,023.83 $19,363.70 $25,304.84 $23,984.59 ?

A9 $23,981.58 $24,236.70 $30,104.54 $30,614.78 $27,298.18 ?

A10 $17,851.14 $19,750.19 $18,800.66 $22,218.97 $17,471.32 ?

Reference no: EM134555

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