Forecasting assignment mariel business has been great succes

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Forecasting Assignment Mariel's business has been a great success. Over the past two years (how time flies) she has been selling jumbo thermoses for events. Making the jumbos requires additional coffee and jumbo containers. She has had trouble maintaining an adequate inventory and has asked you to come up with a forecasting method for predicting monthly demand. Her sales data is shown below. Year Month Actual 1 Jan 76 1 Feb 106 1 Mar 111 1 Apr 82 1 May 112 1 Jun 94 1 Jul 132 1 Aug 110 1 Sep 143 1 Oct 121 1 Nov 188 1 Dec 193 2 Jan 229 2 Feb 293 2 Mar 208 2 Apr 225 2 May 299 2 Jun 193 2 Jul 360 2 Aug 282 2 Sep 167 2 Oct 196 2 Nov 320 2 Dec 331 What you need to do to complete this assignment: 1. Given the demand history at the left, predict Jan sales for year three using a forecasting method (from those we covered in class or some other method if you are really adventurous) 2. Assume that demand is not seasonal and not currently affected by business cycles 3. As always, preform your work in Excel showing MAD (or MAPE) and Bias (Mean Forecast Error) for you forecasts. 4. Explain to Mariel why this is the best method (on the spreadsheet—do not give me a Word file). Remember, BEST means that you have compared at least two.

Reference no: EM132241559

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