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Forecast the annual tonnage unloaded

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Reference no: EM132691570

1) The Kandla Port has unloaded large quantities of grain from ships during the past 8 quarters. The port's operations manager wants to forecast for the future based on the following methods and calculate the errors.

Quarter

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Actual tonnage unloaded

180
168
129
175
190
205
180
182

a. Forecast the annual tonnage unloaded during 9th quarter using Naive method

b. Forecast the annual tonnage unloaded during 9th quarter using 4 period moving average

c. Forecast the annual tonnage unloaded during 9th quarter using 4 period weighted moving average using weights as 0.4, 0.3,0.2,0.1.

d. Forecast the annual tonnage unloaded during 9th quarter using exponential smoothing with constant 0.4

e. Forecast the annual tonnage unloaded during 9th, 10th and 11th quarter using linear regression method.

Calculate forecast accuracy for the above methods (Error, MAD, MSE, MAPE) and infer the best method for the data using tracking signal

Reference no: EM132691570

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