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Forecast model based on a simple moving average method

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Reference no: EM132691541

One student develops a forecasting model using exponential smoothing method with smoothing constant (alpha) value of 0.5. As she compares the actual values to the model generated values (forecast values) for 5 time periods, the MAD value comes out as 5.0. She then tries alpha value of 0.6 and MAD value comes out as 6.0. What alpha value should she try next?

While monitoring a forecast model based on a simple moving average method, the tracking signal values are coming out as follows: 2.5, 4.9, 5.0, 9.8, 10.0.

-What does this mean?

-What should we do to the forecast model?

Reference no: EM132691541

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