Reference no: EM131383876
Seasonal Series: Forecasting and Decomposition
INSTRUCTIONS: Use MINITAB 17 to complete the following questions. You are to work independently on this assignment. All data sets for this assignment have been provided. Submit completed assignment that includes relevant MINITAB output and comments (make sure to comment on your results when asked) as ONE WORDdocument.
1. Use the data set NAPAVALLEY.MTW. These data represent monthly wine sales for Northern Napa Valley Winery, Inc. from January 1988 through August 1996. The forecast variable is Monthly Wine Sales (C1).
(a) Fit additive and multiplicative decomposition models (with trend and seasonality) to these data(Monthly Wine Sales).
(b) Fit the Winter's triple exponential smoothing model (both additive and multiplicative) to these data(Monthly Wine Sales). Use the default values for thesmoothing constants.
(c) Based on the fitted accuracy measures, which model is best? .
2. Use the data set MurphyBrothersFurniture.MTW. These data represent monthly sales ($ billions) for all retail stores during the period from 2001 to 2013. Holdout the data for the last 6 months (i.e., do not use these data in the model fitting stage). Simply cut and paste the last six observations from C1 into C2. You will then use these observations to assess forecast accuracy. This means that you will use 150 observations for model fitting.
(a) Fit additive decomposition with trend and seasonal to these data. Forecast for the last 6 months. Store these forecasts (go to Storage and check Forecasts; the forecasts generated will then be stored in the next available column, in this case C3).
(b) Fit multiplicative decomposition with trend and seasonal to these data. Forecast for the last 6 months. Store these forecasts (go to Storage and check Forecasts; the forecasts generated will then be stored in the next available column, in this case C6).
(c) Which model fits the data better? Justify your answer.
(d) Calculate both MAE and MSE to measure forecast accuracy over the holdout sample (the last 6 months) for using forecasts generated from additive and multiplicative decomposition. Based on these results, which model forecasts better?
3. Use the data set CallCenter.MTW. These data represent monthly call volume for an existing product (Source:Quality Engineering 24 (2012): 386-399).
(a) Prepare a time series plot. What time series components are evident?
(b) Fit the Winter's triple exponential smoothing model (both additive and multiplicative) to these data. Use the default values for thesmoothing constants. Which fits better?
Attachment:- Data.rar
|
State your conclusion about the hypotheses
: Assuming no bias in promotions, how many female detectives would you expect the NYPD to have?
|
|
What is the bond current yield
: You paid $1,168 for a corporate bond that has a 15.07 percent coupon rate. What is the bond's current yield?
|
|
Assume annual coupon payments
: What is the yield to maturity of a 13-year bond that pays a coupon rate of 7.83 percent per year, has a $1,000 par value, and is currently priced at $1,483? Assume annual coupon payments.
|
|
What are the specific highlights of each regulation or act
: What are the specific highlights of each regulation or Act? Will there be an impact to the merged company? What can the merged company do to be proactive and reactive for each regulation or Act?
|
|
Fit additive and multiplicative decomposition models
: Fit additive and multiplicative decomposition models to these data(Monthly Wine Sales).- Fit the Winter's triple exponential smoothing model to these data.
|
|
What kind of chi-square test would be appropriate
: Recently, there's been some concern that perhaps the number of large hurricanes has been increasing. The natural null hypothesis would be that the frequency of such hurricanes has remained constant.
|
|
Total real rate of return on investment
: What was your total nominal rate of return on this investment over the past year? If the inflation rate last year was 3 percent, what was your total real rate of return on this investment?
|
|
Discuss the idea of needing to treat all employees equally
: MGT491- Discuss the idea of needing to "treat all employees equally." What exactly is it that HRM/management needs to do? How do human resource professionals "treat employees equally" when their situations are so different?
|
|
What is the price today for a delicious mills bond
: 9 years ago, Delicious Mills, Inc. issued 30-year to maturity bonds that had a 7.34 percent annual coupon rate, paid semiannually. The bonds had a $1,000 face value. Since then, interest rates in general have changed and the yield to maturity on t..
|