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A real estate investor has the opportunity to purchase land currently zoned residential. If the county board approves a request to rezone the property as commercial within the next year, the investor will be able to lease the land to a large discount firm that wants to open a new store on the property. However, if the zoning change is not approved, the investor will have to sell the property at a loss.
Profits (in thousands of dollars) are shown in the following payoff table:
State of Nature Rezoning Approved Rezoning Not Approved
Decision Alternative S1 S2Purchase, d1 550 -250Do not purchase, d2 0 0
Problem 1: If the probability that the rezoning will be approved is 0.5, what decision is recommended?
Problem 2: What is the expected profit?
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