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The USGS has maintained a stream gage on Big Creek at Hill City since 1964. The highest discharge recorded at this gage was 45,000 cfs in 1972. The base-10 logs of the annual peak discharges in cfs for WY 1965-2013 have a mean of 3.678 and a standard deviation of 0.456. Assume that the probability distribution of the annual peak discharges is log-normal (the logs of the annual peak discharges are normally distributed). Note: the recurrence interval of a discharge is the reciprocal of its annual exceedance probability.
1.) Find the discharge with an annual exceedance probability of 0.02.
2.) Find the annual exceedance probability of the 1972 flood.
What is the difference between a causal model and a time- series model? Give an example of when each would be used. What are some of the problems and drawbacks of the moving average forecasting model?
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