Reference no: EM133140769

FINC5001 Foundation in Finance - The University of Sydney

You currently work as a team at a major investment bank and have been tasked by the Investment Management Division (IMD) to analyse a stock that will be incorporated into a portfolio with other assets from the same market. You will need to prepare a professional business report that will be submitted to the Investment Management Division (IMD) that answers the questions proposed in this investment brief as well as a final recommendation.

Stock Details

Question 1. Select a publicly listed company that is a constituent of the S&P/ASX 300 index (Australia), S&P 500 Index (US) or CSI 300 Index (China) that has at least 10 consecutive years of dividend history from 2012-2021. The selected company cannot be one which is listed on the last page of the Assignment instructions. Describe the company that you have chosen, so that the IMD has a comprehensive understanding of its operations and risks. (If the company did not pay dividends in 2020 due to COVID-19 but paid dividends in every other year, including 2021, this will be allowed)

Question 2. Find three news articles from the last 4 weeks about your chosen company and briefly summarise each article (1-2 sentences). Briefly explain how the event(s) detailed in the news articles have affected your company.

Question 3. List the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sector, industry, and sub-industry for your chosen company. List one other public company that is in the same sub-industry as your chosen company and briefly describe its operations. This competitor does not have to be listed in any of the indices nor is subject to the restrictions in part 1.

Question 4. Present a table of a current "stock quote" with the following characteristics: (1) Current
Price (2) 52 Week Range (3) Market Cap (4) Beta (5) P/E Ratio (6) EPS (7) Earnings Date
(8) Forward Dividend and Yield, (9) Ex-Dividend Date, and (10) 1 year Target Estimate for both your chosen company and competitor. Define, interpret, and compare each characteristic for your IMD.

Question 5. Compare the P/E ratio of your chosen company and the competitor to the average P/E ratio of the industry of your chosen company. Compare these number with the average P/E ratio of your chosen stock market index as well. Discuss in detail.

Summary Statistics and Risk Characterisation

Question 6. Calculate the annual returns (from January 1st to December 31st for each year) for the market index that your chosen company belongs to for the last: (i) 5-year period, (ii) 10- year period, and (iii) 20-year period. Calculate the average annual return and standard deviation of annual returns over these 3 time periods using both the arithmetic and geometric averages (for the standard deviation, you can use just the arithmetic average). How have these values changed over time? What do these changes mean for the average investor? Discuss in detail.

Question 7. List the current Government bond rates of the following maturities: (i) 1-year, (ii) 5-year,
(iii) 10-year, (iv) 20-year, and (v) 30-year. List and graph the 10-year government bond rate over the time period 2010-2021. How has the 10-year rate changed over this period? Why do you think this has occurred? Do you think the 10-year rate will go up or down in the future? Discuss with references to the appropriate academic literature.

Question 8. Calculate the annual returns (from January 1st to December 31st for each year) of your chosen company from 2012-2021. Annualise all dividends paid out. Calculate the average annual return and standard deviation of annual returns from 2012-2021 using both the arithmetic and geometric averages (for the standard deviation, you can use just the arithmetic average). How has your company performed over this period? Do the arithmetic and geometric averages differ for your company? Why or why not? Interpret these numbers for your manager.

Question 9. Calculate the annual beta for your chosen company returns using the annual returns from 2012-2021 along with the annual returns and standard deviation of your market index. Compare your calculated annual beta with the beta found in your stock quote. Are these values the same or different? Explain and discuss why they may be similar and/or different. Calculate the annual beta for the subperiod between 2012-2019 (pre-COVID-19) and compare this number with your other betas. Compare and discuss the stability of your beta values with references to the appropriate academic literature.

Question 10. Graph and compare the annual returns and standard deviation of your company with the market index. Discuss and relate this comparison to your company's beta(s). Does your beta calculation explain your company's returns with respect to the market? Explain in detail why this may or may not be the case.

Question 11. Using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), calculate the required rate of return on equity for your chosen company using all the different government bond rates in part (7), as proxies for the risk-free rate. Select one of the annual return calculations calculated in part (6), as a proxy for the expected market returns and justify your choice. Discuss how appropriate your choices are as proxies for the theoretical values in the CAPM equation.

Growth Rates and Valuation

Question 12. Estimate the growth rate of your chosen company's cash flows by using the following three methods:

(a) Calculate and list the annual growth rates for dividends from 2012-2021 (For any years within your sample with anomalous dividend growth rates discuss why this might have occurred. If your company did not pay dividends in 2020 due to COVID-19 just use the dividends in the prior year as a proxy). Calculate the arithmetic and geometric average annual growth rate of dividends over this period. Also calculate the arithmetic and geometric average annual growth rate of dividends for the subperiod between 2012- 2019 (pre-COVID-19) and compare the values. Do you think your company's dividends will grow at these rates for the foreseeable future? Explain in detail why or why not.

(b) Calculate and list the annual growth rates for net income from 2012-2021 (For any years within your sample with anomalous net income growth rates discuss why this might have occurred). Calculate the arithmetic and geometric average annual growth rate of net income over this period. Also calculate the arithmetic and geometric average annual growth rate of net income for the subperiod between 2012-2019 (pre- COVID-19) and compare the values. Do you think your company's net income will grow at these rates for the foreseeable future? Explain in detail why or why not.

(c) Using the formula g = b * ROE, calculate and list the growth rates, plowback ratios, and ROE for the time period between 2012-2021 (For any years within your sample with anomalous plowback ratios and/or ROE discuss why this might have occurred). Calculate the arithmetic and geometric average annual growth rate over this period

(remove any rates that are negative from your sample). Also calculate the arithmetic and geometric average annual growth rate for the subperiod between 2012-2019 (pre-COVID-19) and compare the values (remove any rates that are negative from your sample). Do you think this method of calculating growth rates is useful for valuation? Explain in detail why or why not.

Question 13. Using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models you have learnt in FINC5001, determine the intrinsic value of your chosen company using an appropriate required rate of return (from part 11) and (a) growth rate(s) (from part 12). Justify the choices and assumptions you have made in undertaking this calculation in detail and why you did not choose any other values instead. Discuss why you chose your valuation model and its key assumptions and why you believe your chosen rates satisfy these assumptions. When do you think the GGM is preferred to a two-stage or multi-stage growth model and why? Explain. (If you make deviations from the choices in part (11) and/or part (12), clearly justify why you made these changes and why these new values are more sensible for this analysis).

Question 14. Draw a cash flow timeline (like discussed in the Modules) of your company's future dividends (implied by your valuation model in part 13) to support the discussion above.

Question 15. Calculate the Present Value of Growth Opportunities (PVGO) for your chosen company using the current stock price. Interpret this value for your manager.

Question 16. The values that you have utilised in part (13) represent only one possible set of choices for a valuation model. Determine the intrinsic value of your chosen company using a range of values (+1 and -1 for your growth rates and +1 and -1 for your discount rate). You should have a total of 9 intrinsic value calculations like the table below:

g/r	+1	0	-1
+1
0		Base Case
-1

For example, the top left slot would calculate an intrinsic value using both a growth rate and required rate of return that is 1% higher than your chosen rates in part (13) (for any negative calculations just put N/A).

Recommendation

Question 17. Using the DCF analyses performed in parts 1-16, make a detailed recommendation for your chosen company as to whether to buy, sell or hold this stock. Along with your valuation model, you should use any relevant information about your chosen company, competitors, its industry, and the economic outlook to justify your recommendation. Detail the limitations of your analysis and assumptions as well as incorporate the sensitivity analysis done in part 16 and what this analysis adds to your valuation. A well- justified recommendation properly connects outside information on how it relates to your valuation model via dividends, cash flows, growth rates, discount rates, and other financial factors. Remember, you are trying to present a report that convinces the IMD that you have done a thorough and detailed analysis of your chosen company. The recommendation must be cohesive and consistent with the analyses performed in the sections above.

Peer evaluation

• List and date all your data sources. Depending on the day and time with which you collect the data, this will be different. For each set of data used in the report, present a screenshot of this data in the Appendix.
• Justifications in the report should be made with references to appropriate academic literature.
• The Excel workbook needs to be properly formatted and appropriately labelled such that the instructors can read, interpret your calculations, and replicate all results presented in the report without assistance.

Attachment:- Foundation in Finance.rar