Explains the meaning of statistical output for a policymaker

Assignment Help Applied Statistics

Reference no: EM132312051

Program Evaluation - Statistical Analysis for Program Evaluation Written Assignment

The goal of this exercise is to use results from a randomized impact evaluation to formulate policy recommendations. We have abstracted a subset of the more extensive data used in a paper by Thornton (AER 2008) titled, "The Demand and Impact of Learning HIV Status" to produce the results below.

Thornton (2008) examines whether varying the cost of HIV testing can increase the number of people who get their test results. There are two interventions:

1) Cash payments to individuals who receive their HIV test results; and,

2) Reducing the distance a person needs to travel to obtain their HIV test results.

Both interventions are randomly assigned on an individual level.

Key Study Variables:

got = 1 if the person got their HIV test results; 0 if they did not.
any = 1 if randomly assigned to receive a cash incentive to obtain HIV test result (randomly assigned to intervention 1); 0 if did not receive cash incentive.
under = 1 if randomly assigned distance to get test result is under 1.5 km (randomly assigned to intervention 2); 0 if did not have reduced distance.

Key background variables:

age = age in years
male = gender (0 = female, 1 = male)
mar = marital status at baseline (0 = not married, 1= married)
educ2004 = years of completed education

Those who were assigned a cash incentive or have to travel less then 1.5 km to get their test results are known as the "treatment" group and those who are not receiving a cash incentive or have to travel further then 1.5 km are known as the "control" group.

Policy Implications: Submit a write-up of no more than one page

Write a paragraph or two that explains the meaning of the statistical output on the previous page for a policymaker - what policy decisions should be made based on these statistical results?
Your job is to essentially "translate" the statistical language for someone who is not familiar with statistics. For example, don't just state that something is statistically significant, interpret what the statistical significance of that variable actually means. Avoid too much statistical, technical language.
Can be single or double-spaced - but, remember, the more concisely you can state the key points, the closer you are to getting a policymaker to hear and understand what you are saying.
Your policy statement MUST include information on the 5 points listed below.
Please refer only to the Stata output provided in this assignment document for the first 3 points, and the Thornton paper for the last 2 points.
You are graded on correct understanding and interpretation of the statistical results, as well as your "policy statement writing style".

1. If the goal of the government is to increase the number of people who know their HIV status, what type of incentive would you recommend implementing to motivate people to go back and get the results - providing cash incentives or reducing distance? Explain, in plain language, to a policymaker how the statistical results support this recommendation. Make sure you consider not only statistical significance of estimated effects, but the size of the effect as well.

2. Explain to the policymaker why this would be a good investment for the government, considering the practical programmatic implications of each incentive type and using your statistical results to justify.

3. Further using the statistical evidence, explain to the policymaker why the recommended incentive can be expected to be effective outside the original study are, considering the variables that were included as controls in the final model.

4. Further support your pitch of the recommended incentive by referring to the analysis results from the Thornton paper relating to condom purchases.

5. What does the Thornton paper conclude about whether increasing knowledge of HIV status influences risky behaviours, based on the data from this study? Incorporate the conclusion from the paper into the final part of your policy recommendation.

Attachment:- Assignment File.rar

Reference no: EM132312051

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