Explain why a relatively high value for the former

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Reference no: EM1345936

Table 1 is provided as a reference for input values for your model.

Table 1. Input Variable for Scenario Analysis
Variable Name	Description	Base	Best	Worst
Pr_PROB	Per-act HIV infection without PEP	0.02	0.03	0.006
Pr_PREV	Partner is HIV-infected	0.18	1	0.06
Pr_ADHERE1	Patients' adherence to full course of therapy in absence of side effects	0.79	0.84	0.68
Pr_ADHERE2	Patients' adherence to full course of therapy when side effects occur	0.59	0.68	0.5
Pr_PEPE	Effectiveness of full course of PEP	0.79	0.94	0.43
Pr_SIDE	Probability of PEP side effects	0.5	0.2	0.8
r	Discount rate	3%	0	5%
C_PEP	Cost of PEP per person	$679	$439	$1,048
Q_SIDE	QALYs lost due to side effect	0.005	0	0.02
Note:C_HIVMC, Q_HIV and Q_NOHIV are functions of discount rate and annual values; they will vary in accordance with the discount rate r. C_HIVMC = NPV(r;0; 0; 3267; 9303; 9303; 9303; 16167; 16167; 16167; 17835; 17835; 17835; 17835; 25729; 49010; 49010)172.2/156.9 Q_HIV* = NPV(r;0.940; 0.940; 0.910; 0.870; 0.870; 0.870; 0.820; 0.820; 0.820; 0.760; 0.760; 0.760; 0.760; 0.650; 0.620; 0.620) Q_NOHIV = PV(0.940; 0; r; 39)

Note: You do not need to make best and worst case variables for C_HIVMC, Q_NOHIV and Q_HIV. These values are functions of the discount rate. They will change as a function of the best and worst case discount rates.

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Answer the following questions. Please type your answers.

1. Consider variables: Pr_Prob and Pr SIDE. Explain why a relatively high value for the former and a relatively low value for the latter are the input values for the BEST case.

2. Please completetable 2 below.

3. Please describe generally what a best and worst case scenario analysis is and why we conduct them.

4. Explain the results presented in your table to a policy-maker.

Table 2: Base, Best and Worst Case Results

Scenario	Cost	Incremental Cost	Effects	Incremental Effect	ICER
Base Case
PEP
No-PEP

Worst
PEP
No-PEP

Best
PEP
No-PEP

Reference no: EM1345936

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